Those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it. It’s an old phrase -a cliche, really – but the popularity of the phrase (and its various incarnations) is due to a core of truth. History does indeed teach as many things, and failing to learn those lessons can cause us to make avoidable mistakes.
It’s hard not to feel a wave deja-vu while reviewing the latest reports on the topic of mobile OS market share. Despite the release of the iPhone 4 on Verizon, Android continues to surge forward, and has now obtained the number one seat – brushing past not Apple but rather RIM. Nope, Blackberry isn’t dead – it’s just not very sexy.
The real story, however, is that iPhone market share seems to have flatlined.
Let’s see. Apple, which enters the market with a revolutionary computing product, saw tremendous initial success while competitors struggled to find footing. But a new product has risen to fight Apple’s offerings, and it is doing well. It’s strength is its relative open nature; while Apple likes to tie its operating systems and hardware together, the newcomer is happy to let anyone run its operating system. The result is arguably a less cohesive experience, but the wide range of selection seems to be overwhelming Apple by sheer numbers. And there are some users who absolutely prefer the competitor, as the wider selection of hardware and software makes it appeal to markets Apple has little clout with.
We’ve seen this movie before; it’s the story of Microsoft vs Apple. We all know the ending, and it’s not pretty for Apple faithful. Now, the flick is being remains. The actors have been switched around a bit – Microsoft, old and wrinkly, has been replaced by a fresh newcomer called Google – but plot is otherwise similar.
Learning from History: The Risks of the Apple Way
Apple’s single-minded approach to product development is well respected, as it should be. Apple has made, and continues to make, some the best products in the world – not only in the smartphone market, but also in computers.
Yet Apple’s approach creates risks. One risk is the possibility of product failure, an issue that has wounded the company severely in the past. The PowerBook 5300, for example, severely hurt Apple when it was released in 1995. The company was forced to recall numerous laptops, and left Apple with a series stain its reputation as well as its balance sheets. Although modern Apple is arguably a more agile and responsible company, everyone makes mistakes. The reception problems of the iPhone 4 are one example; now, imagine if a problem of the scale had impacted the processor or the display.
The other problem is Apple’s inability to fill the needs of large portions of the market. Apple’s sales of the iPhone have been outstanding, but there is still little doubt that the iPhone remains a luxury item. The base price of $200, and price of $300 for the model with expanded memory, clearly put the iPhone 4 outside the reach of many.
Even those who cannot afford it may not want it. Jobs was widely panned recently because of his dislike of phones with displays sized beyond 4 inches. He didn’t think such phones would sell, but recent reports have shown that they’re doing well. Flash is also an obvious example and point of contention. If you want Flash, you can’t buy an iPhone. Period.
Similar, but Not the Same
The weaknesses outlined above are a big deal, because they give competitors room to grow, even if they show up for in the market substantially later than Apple. Android’s market share growth is rather astounding not only because of its speed, but also because it’s happened during a period where Apple’s been stronger than ever before.
However, the downfall of the iPhone as the dominant smartphone is not guaranteed. It’s only possible. While Apple could do well to learn from history, Google also needs to learn – if they don’t, they could have trouble keeping their market share gains.
One problem, obviously, is fragmentation. Google’s Android operating system is a messy beast. It’s handed out to anyone, who can then do whatever they want with it, regardless of the quality of those changes. The Windows market had these growing pains in the 1990s, when computers came with pre-installed software libraries that could number over 40 CDs (back then, you usually received a disc version of any software installed on your PC). Microsoft nipped that problem in the bud, but it was never a real threat, because it only became an issue after Microsoft had emerged victorious.
Google has the issue now, however, while Android is growing. It’s a problem that can severely impact the quality of the Android phone experience. My Thunderbolt, for example, came with a pre-installed Blockbuster app that was bugged, and would run a background service that kept the phone awake even though the Blockbuster app had never run. Updating the Blockbuster app fixed the problem, but I was only able to reach that solution after much research. Someone who is less technically savvy would no doubt be left wondering why their phone’s battery doesn’t last more than six hours.
Another problem with Android is a lack of quality first-party software. Window’s long-term success is, in my opinion, partially due to the wide range of first-party software, such as Microsoft Office, that is available from Microsoft. The strength of this software gave Windows a edge over the competition, as users could count on Windows providing them with needed functionality. The Android Market, by comparison, has been a disaster. Without proper software support, Android’s success will have limits.
Conclusion
I’m not going to predict the future, and the point of this article is not to flatly say that Apple is doomed and Android is destined for success, or vice-versa. I only want to point out what history has taught us. The future of Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android is the responsibility for the people heading those companies, and no one else. Will they make the right decisions? I don’t know. I do know, however, that the competition is far from over, and Apple’s supposedly unassailable hold on the market has turned out to be anything but.
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